A recent report by the World Bank has sounded the alarm on Nigeria’s deepening poverty crisis, forecasting a 3.6 percentage point increase in the poverty rate by 2027. The grim projection is part of the Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report, released during the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
The report attributes this worrying trend to structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s economic model, particularly its heavy dependence on natural resources and fragile governance systems. While non-oil sectors experienced modest growth in late 2024, these gains are unlikely to offset broader systemic challenges.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated. This trajectory starkly contrasts with non-resource-rich African countries, where poverty levels are expected to decline due to stronger agricultural performance and better fiscal stability.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains the global epicenter of extreme poverty. As of 2024, 80% of the world’s 695 million extremely poor people live in the region. Alarmingly, half of these reside in just four countries, with Nigeria among them.
Resource-dependent nations are being hit particularly hard as global oil prices soften and fiscal capacity weakens. Unlike diversified economies that are leveraging agricultural exports for growth, countries like Nigeria are struggling to build economic resilience or reduce dependency on volatile revenue streams.
The World Bank’s findings underscore the long-standing relationship between natural resource wealth, conflict, and poverty. In 2024, fragile resource-rich countries averaged a poverty rate of 46%—13 points higher than their more stable counterparts.
To reverse this trajectory, the World Bank urges Nigeria and similar economies to improve fiscal discipline and reestablish a strong social contract with their citizens. This, it argues, is critical to unlocking inclusive development and sustainable poverty reduction.
