
Former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, has raised concerns over the increasingly strained relationship between President Bola Tinubu and the northern political bloc, cautioning that history may repeat itself in the 2027 elections. In a recent post on his verified X handle, El-Rufai warned that Tinubu risked facing a fate similar to that of former President Goodluck Jonathan, whose administration ultimately lost northern support, leading to his defeat in 2015.
El-Rufai’s remarks, captured in a post titled “2027: South West, Tinubu’s Supporters Playing with Fire – Part 1,” come amid growing political discourse on the future of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Meanwhile, APC National Chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, has urged northern politicians with presidential ambitions to shelve their aspirations, insisting that Tinubu will complete two full terms in office. Ganduje made these remarks while addressing members of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Media Centre (PBAT Media Centre) and the Tinubu Northern Youth Forum (TNYF) at the APC national secretariat in Abuja.
El-Rufai, who has been increasingly vocal in his criticisms of the Tinubu administration, reflected on the APC’s trajectory, warning that internal discord and political miscalculations could cost the party dearly. Recalling his concerns dating back to the 2019 primaries, he reiterated that if APC prioritizes power retention over its ideological foundations, it could suffer a fate similar to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which lost power after 16 years of dominance.
“Less than two years into the tenure, we are witnessing a rapid deterioration in the relationship between the North and President Bola Tinubu’s administration. This decline is largely fueled by the words and actions of individuals from the president’s geopolitical zone,” El-Rufai noted, drawing parallels to the political dynamics that led to Jonathan’s fall.
He argued that while Jonathan’s governance record played a role in his electoral defeat, it was his administration’s perceived disregard for northern interests and the arrogance of certain individuals in his camp that ultimately alienated the region. El-Rufai warned that a similar miscalculation was unfolding within APC, particularly among some of Tinubu’s allies from the South-West.
“Politics is not a one-man show,” he asserted. “Ignoring history could lead to a repeat of past mistakes. The North remains a crucial factor in Nigerian politics, and any leader who dismisses its significance risks paying a steep political price.”
Amid speculations about his potential arrest upon returning to Nigeria, El-Rufai dismissed the rumors, insisting that he would not go into exile over alleged politically motivated plots against him.
With just two years to the 2027 elections, the former governor urged the APC leadership to prioritize governance and deliver on its promises to Nigerians, rather than engaging in political brinkmanship that could erode the party’s electoral chances.